These pages feature some of the mathematical modeling efforts from Penn State’s Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics (CIDD) to forecast hospital needs during the 2020 COVID epidemic in the United States. The forecasts and statistical analyses described below represent a collaboration between the labs of Ephraim Hanks, Justin Pritchard, and Maciej Boni. Please see the About page for contributors and colleagues. The Methods page contains details on the modeling and statistical approaches used, but note that individual results below may have been generated using an adjusted version of these methods, so please read each post carefully. Email us with any questions.
May 23 2020 – Data Update, Bug Fix – An updated analysis on Rhode Island case data through May 16 gives an estimate of the reporting rate ρ=0.74 (95% HPD: 0.56 – 1.0). We estimate that 5.3% of Rhode Island’s population has been infected through May 22. Re-opening sectors of the economy and society should come with improved hygiene and distancing guidelines in order to avoid an epidemic rebound. Read more.
May 17 2020 – Preliminary Analysis – An analysis of Massachusetts case confirmations and hospitalization data indicate a 50% drop in population mixing and social/physical contact rates between early March and late March, and a 70% drop by mid-April. We estimate that 51% of all symptomatic COVID cases in Massachusetts are captured by the health system. Relaxing social distancing measures in Massachusetts is likely to result in a rebound of case numbers and a nearly full-sized epidemic. Read more.
May 14 2020 – Preliminary Analysis – An analysis of Rhode Island’s case confirmations and hospitalization data indicate a 40% drop in population mixing and social/physical contact rates between early March and late March, and a 60% drop by mid-April. We estimate that 71% of all symptomatic COVID cases in Rhode Island are captured by the health system. We estimate probabilities of hospitalization and ICU admission, which show similar age patterns to estimates obtained on other parts of the US. Read more.
April 27 2020 – Preliminary Analysis – First data fits on Rhode Island’s case confirmations only indicate a >80% drop in population mixing and social/physical contact rates between early March and late March. The contact rate reduction appears to have been sustained through late April. Forecast for May 15 indicates an incidence of 1260 daily reported cases (IQR: 1071–1678). Read more.